There are three drivers with a mathematical chance of winning this year’s F1 World Drivers’ Championship. They are Lando Norris (McLaren), Max Verstappen (Red Bull) and Oscar Piastri (McLaren). Their points are 408, 396 and 392 respectively.

Of the three drivers Lando Norris has by far the best chance of winning with his lead of twelve points over Max Verstappen and sixteen points lead over Oscar Piastri.

This table shows the three driver’s points for each of the top ten, point scoring finishing position.

COUNTBACK

Should two or more drivers end a season on the same number of World Drivers’ Championship points then a process called countback is utilised. This simply looks at the drivers points as to which driver had the most wins. If the wins are equal, then the driver with the most second places and so on until the driver with the best seasonal race finishes is declared the champion for that year.

As can be seen from the above scenarios there are several times that the points could be equal, so what does a countback or driver performance look like for this year?

And graphically

If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have the same points, then Lando would win on first place finishes.

If Lando Norris and Max Verstappen have the same points, then Lando wins by virtue of having more second place finishes.

CONCLUSION

Given all above, unless something very unexpected happens, Lando Norris (McLaren) should win his maiden F1 World Drivers’ Championship in 2025.

Given how this season has unfolded I would not bet my shirt on this prediction.

Abu Dhabi will be an unmissable F1 experience, with free practice sessions, qualifying rounds, and the race itself all promising to be the most thrilling events in the world.